KMCO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

31%

23%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.8¢Risks 21.75u

EPSNO 78.2¢Risks 78.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.25u · EPS −78.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	28.3%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	40.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	34.1%	—	7.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	26.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	39.7%	—	9.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	42.7%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	36.1%	30.0%	11.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	14.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	40%	85.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	84.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	79.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	81.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗