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KMCO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
40%
HRES
36%
WN2
31%
ICON
23%
EPS
4%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 21.8¢Risks 21.75u
VS
EPSNO 78.2¢Risks 78.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.25u · EPS −78.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 15:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:0039.7%4.9%31.2%35.5%23.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0039.7%4.9%31.2%35.5%23.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0039.7%4.9%31.2%35.5%23.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0039.7%4.9%31.2%35.5%23.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:0039.7%4.9%31.2%35.5%23.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:0039.7%4.9%31.2%35.5%23.3%
2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:0039.7%3.8%31.2%35.5%23.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single40%85.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%84.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 231%84.0°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON23%79.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend5%81.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%81.9°F2.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗