KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.9¢Risks 3.95u

WN2NO 92.1¢Risks 46.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.05u · WN2 −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	10.9%	1.4%	0.2%	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	10.9%	13.2%	0.4%	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	17.9%	11.0%	2.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.7%	9.3%	0.4%	—	2.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.6%	9.0%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	3.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0237
NWS forecast	10%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0106
National Blend	6%	77.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0037
IFS HRES	5%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0029
IFS Ensemble	2%	76.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0006
AIFS Single	<1%	71.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗