KMEM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.9¢Risks 3.95u

WN2NO 92.1¢Risks 46.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.05u · WN2 −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:59+00:00	0.2%	18.5%	3.8%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	0.2%	18.5%	3.8%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:09+00:00	0.2%	18.5%	3.8%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	0.2%	18.5%	3.8%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:46+00:00	0.2%	18.5%	3.8%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:49+00:00	0.2%	8.1%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	0.2%	8.1%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	0.2%	8.1%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	2.3%	8.1%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	2.4%	8.1%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:33+00:00	2.4%	7.8%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	2.4%	7.8%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	2.4%	7.8%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	2.4%	7.8%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:10+00:00	2.4%	7.8%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	2.4%	7.8%	0.5%	47.5%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	0.5%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	0.5%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	0.5%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	0.5%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	0.5%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	6.6%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:20+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	3.0%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	4.9%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	4.9%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	10.5%	7.8%	4.9%	28.5%	40.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00	7.6%	7.8%	4.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00	7.6%	7.8%	4.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	7.6%	7.8%	4.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	7.6%	7.8%	4.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00	7.6%	7.8%	4.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:29+00:00	7.6%	7.8%	5.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	7.6%	7.5%	5.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	7.6%	7.5%	5.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	5.9%	7.5%	5.9%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	5.9%	7.7%	6.0%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:57+00:00	5.9%	7.7%	6.0%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	6.0%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	17.2%	32.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	2.4%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	5.9%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:48+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.3%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.0%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.0%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.0%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	5.1%	8.3%	3.0%	13.0%	42.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00	1.7%	8.3%	3.0%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	1.7%	8.3%	3.0%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	1.7%	8.3%	3.0%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	1.7%	8.3%	3.0%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.4%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.4%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.4%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.4%	5.4%	20.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	1.6%	1.9%	0.4%	5.4%	20.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	1.6%	2.4%	0.4%	5.4%	20.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	1.6%	2.4%	0.4%	5.4%	20.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	1.6%	2.4%	0.4%	5.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	1.6%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	1.6%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	1.6%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	20.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	15.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	15.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	15.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:15+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	15.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.3%	5.6%	15.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.4%	5.4%	15.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.4%	5.4%	15.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	2.1%	2.4%	0.4%	5.4%	15.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	0.9%	2.4%	0.4%	5.4%	15.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	0.9%	2.4%	0.4%	5.4%	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0237
NWS forecast	10%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0106
National Blend	6%	77.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0037
IFS HRES	5%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0029
IFS Ensemble	2%	76.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0006
AIFS Single	<1%	71.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗