KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

59%

42%

36%

22%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.85u

WN2NO 53.2¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · WN2 −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	26.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	13.2%	87.2%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	73.7%	29.8%	15.8%	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	83.5%	72.8%	33.7%	—	68.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	81.6%	40.9%	46.9%	—	56.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	64.8%	88.5%	24.8%	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	2.4%	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	47.5%	78.1%	11.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	19.0%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	46.5%	71.6%	13.1%	—	45.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	32.6%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	46.3%	50.9%	10.2%	—	46.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	49.0%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	40.4%	55.8%	12.6%	—	45.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	45.0%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	51.0%	54.1%	6.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	53.2%	58.4%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	44.5%	61.8%	9.0%	0.0%	39.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	45.5%	59.0%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	45.4%	62.6%	7.6%	30.0%	24.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	61.9%	6.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	46.3%	63.4%	8.0%	0.0%	34.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	48.7%	63.9%	9.8%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	46.0%	66.9%	8.9%	22.0%	14.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	51.4%	65.0%	12.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	58.6%	70.7%	17.2%	40.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	76.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	73.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	72.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗