KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

59%

42%

36%

22%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.85u

WN2NO 53.2¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · WN2 −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:12+00:00	61.9%	71.3%	51.0%	52.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	61.9%	71.3%	51.0%	52.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	61.9%	71.3%	51.0%	52.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	61.9%	71.3%	43.2%	52.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	61.9%	71.3%	43.2%	52.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	61.9%	71.3%	43.2%	52.8%	77.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	43.2%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	43.2%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	43.2%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	43.2%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	43.2%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	50.0%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	42.3%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	46.1%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	46.1%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	53.2%	71.3%	46.1%	47.9%	65.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:34+00:00	63.6%	71.3%	46.1%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	63.6%	71.3%	46.1%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	63.6%	71.3%	46.1%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	63.6%	71.3%	46.1%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	63.6%	71.3%	46.1%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:16+00:00	63.6%	71.3%	41.5%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	63.6%	80.4%	41.5%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	63.6%	80.4%	41.5%	62.6%	60.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	69.2%	80.4%	41.5%	62.6%	60.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	69.2%	80.4%	41.5%	62.6%	60.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00	52.6%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	52.6%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	52.6%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	52.6%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	60.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	52.8%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	52.8%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	52.8%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	52.8%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	52.8%	79.6%	38.4%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:15+00:00	52.8%	81.1%	29.7%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	52.8%	81.1%	29.7%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	52.8%	81.1%	29.7%	53.2%	47.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:25+00:00	55.6%	81.1%	29.7%	66.5%	47.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	55.6%	81.0%	29.7%	66.5%	47.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:36+00:00	59.2%	83.1%	32.8%	55.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	59.2%	83.1%	30.7%	55.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	59.2%	83.1%	30.7%	55.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	59.2%	83.1%	30.7%	55.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	59.7%	83.1%	30.7%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	59.7%	83.1%	30.7%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	59.7%	83.1%	30.7%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	59.7%	83.1%	30.7%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	59.7%	83.1%	30.7%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	59.7%	77.0%	25.9%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	59.7%	77.0%	25.9%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	59.7%	77.0%	25.9%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	58.8%	77.0%	25.9%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	58.8%	76.6%	25.9%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	25.9%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	25.9%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	27.0%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	27.0%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	27.0%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	27.0%	51.0%	41.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	27.0%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	27.0%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	27.0%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	27.0%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	21.9%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	21.9%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	21.9%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	53.9%	71.8%	21.9%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	21.9%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	21.9%	35.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	58.8%	71.8%	21.9%	35.7%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	76.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	73.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	72.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗