KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

42%

41%

27%

26%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

WN2NO 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.65u · WN2 −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	9.9%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	3.6%	67.6%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	47.2%	10.9%	4.4%	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	59.4%	44.9%	12.4%	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	55.3%	16.0%	20.0%	—	27.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	33.7%	65.5%	6.9%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	0.2%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	18.4%	47.5%	2.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	4.1%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	16.7%	37.9%	2.3%	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	8.8%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	15.4%	18.4%	1.4%	—	15.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	16.5%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	11.1%	20.3%	1.7%	—	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	15.8%	13.0%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	15.7%	17.6%	0.5%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	16.3%	19.8%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.9%	21.3%	0.7%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	10.7%	18.3%	0.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	10.0%	19.9%	0.5%	4.5%	3.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	11.4%	18.3%	0.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	8.9%	18.2%	0.4%	0.0%	4.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	17.4%	0.5%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.4%	18.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.6%	15.6%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	10.8%	18.2%	0.8%	4.4%	4.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	9.2%	19.2%	0.4%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.8%	14.2%	0.2%	1.3%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	5.3%	0.4%	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	75%	82.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.5565
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2809
AIFS Single	42%	77.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1781
IFS Ensemble	41%	77.1°F	6.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1689
ICON	27%	72.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0718
WeatherNext 2	26%	75.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0681

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗