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KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
75%
AIFS
42%
EPS
41%
ICON
27%
WN2
26%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 50.4¢Risks 50.35u
VS
WN2NO 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +49.65u · WN2 −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.1% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.1% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:0042.2%41.1%26.1%74.6%26.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:0042.2%41.1%26.1%74.6%26.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:0042.2%41.1%26.1%74.6%26.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:0042.2%41.1%26.1%74.6%26.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:0042.2%41.1%26.1%74.6%26.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES75%82.7°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.5565
National Blend53%79.0°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.2809
AIFS Single42%77.4°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.1781
IFS Ensemble41%77.1°F6.2°F2026-10-11 00:000.1689
ICON27%72.4°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.0718
WeatherNext 226%75.1°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.0681

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗