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KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
13%
HRES
5%
AIFS
4%
EPS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.1¢Risks 3.53u
VS
WN2NO 93.0¢Risks 46.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.48u · WN2 −46.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-12 00:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————2.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:001.9%————5.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:009.3%————5.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:005.8%————6.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:003.3%————5.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:003.5%————4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0012.8%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:007.5%————4.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0020.8%————3.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.8%————3.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————5.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.3%————17.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.8%————20.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:005.0%—0.0%——21.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:003.3%—0.9%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:003.3%————12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:006.8%—3.8%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:006.0%—1.8%——15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:008.4%—23.2%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.9%0.4%34.8%——20.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.0%—22.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.6%17.1%1.7%0.5%—14.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.8%—16.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:005.9%24.9%14.8%1.9%—12.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:003.9%—27.4%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:005.4%20.5%2.5%3.6%—6.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.9%—0.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.9%7.8%27.4%0.7%—2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.2%0.0%18.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.4%2.6%13.4%0.1%—0.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.2%11.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.9%1.9%8.0%0.1%—1.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.1%0.7%11.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.4%1.5%2.0%0.0%—1.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%1.5%3.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.7%2.0%0.0%—1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%1.2%0.9%——0.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.1%1.3%0.0%—0.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%1.0%1.5%——0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.5%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.0%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%1.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.8%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.5%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON13%76.8°F5.9°F2026-10-14 12:000.0169
IFS HRES5%74.2°F5.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.0029
AIFS Single4%74.9°F5.0°F2026-10-14 18:000.0018
National Blend3%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 00:000.0008
NWS forecast3%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:000.0008
IFS Ensemble1%76.3°F3.2°F2026-10-14 00:000.0001
WeatherNext 21%74.1°F4.1°F2026-10-14 18:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗