KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.1¢Risks 3.53u

WN2NO 93.0¢Risks 46.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.48u · WN2 −46.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00	13.8%	15.1%	5.7%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:26+00:00	13.8%	15.1%	5.7%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	13.8%	15.1%	5.7%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	13.8%	15.1%	5.7%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00	13.8%	15.1%	5.7%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00	13.8%	15.1%	8.5%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	13.8%	19.9%	8.5%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	13.8%	19.9%	8.5%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	5.0%	19.9%	8.5%	45.0%	13.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	5.1%	19.9%	8.6%	45.0%	13.1%
2026-10-12T15:26:57+00:00	5.1%	19.9%	8.6%	45.0%	13.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	5.1%	21.0%	8.6%	45.0%	13.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	5.1%	21.0%	4.2%	45.0%	13.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	5.1%	21.0%	4.2%	45.0%	13.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	5.1%	21.0%	4.2%	45.0%	13.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	5.1%	21.0%	4.2%	45.0%	13.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	3.9%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T04:15:48+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	4.2%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	8.3%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	8.3%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	8.3%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	9.1%	21.0%	8.3%	40.6%	46.4%
2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00	17.8%	21.0%	8.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	17.8%	21.0%	8.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	17.8%	21.0%	8.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	17.8%	21.0%	8.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	17.8%	6.8%	5.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	17.8%	6.8%	5.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	17.8%	6.8%	5.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	17.8%	6.8%	5.3%	21.0%	48.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	14.1%	6.8%	5.3%	21.0%	49.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	14.1%	7.8%	5.3%	21.0%	49.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	14.1%	7.8%	5.3%	21.0%	49.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	14.1%	7.8%	5.3%	21.0%	49.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	14.1%	7.8%	4.6%	21.0%	49.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	14.1%	7.8%	4.6%	21.0%	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	14.1%	7.8%	4.6%	21.0%	49.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.6%	21.0%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.6%	21.0%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.6%	21.0%	46.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:15+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.6%	21.0%	46.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.6%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	18.8%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:42+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	8.5%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	8.5%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	8.5%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	8.5%	7.8%	4.5%	25.1%	22.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:44+00:00	8.5%	7.8%	4.5%	6.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	8.5%	1.0%	1.5%	6.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	8.5%	1.0%	1.5%	6.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	8.5%	1.0%	1.5%	6.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	6.5%	1.0%	1.5%	6.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	1.5%	6.8%	22.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:12+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	1.5%	6.8%	22.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	1.5%	6.8%	22.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	1.5%	6.8%	22.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	0.9%	6.8%	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	0.9%	6.8%	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	0.9%	6.8%	22.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	3.5%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	0.9%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	1.1%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	1.1%	5.4%	13.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	1.1%	5.4%	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	13%	76.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0169
IFS HRES	5%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0029
AIFS Single	4%	74.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0018
National Blend	3%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0008
NWS forecast	3%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0008
IFS Ensemble	1%	76.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	1%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗