KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.6¢Risks 12.55u

EPSNO 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.45u · EPS −87.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.6%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.1%	8.5%	0.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	4.2%	2.8%	0.4%	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.4%	2.4%	0.3%	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.6%	2.1%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.6%	2.1%	0.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	1.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.9%	1.5%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.9%	1.8%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.9%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	1.2%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.1%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	84.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	82.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗