KMEM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.6¢Risks 12.55u

EPSNO 87.5¢Risks 87.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.45u · EPS −87.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:46+00:00	17.7%	2.0%	10.7%	10.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	17.7%	1.1%	4.2%	10.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	17.7%	1.1%	4.2%	10.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	17.7%	1.1%	4.2%	10.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	11.3%	1.1%	4.2%	10.4%	14.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	11.3%	1.1%	4.3%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:13+00:00	11.3%	1.2%	4.3%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	11.3%	1.2%	4.3%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	11.3%	1.2%	4.3%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	11.3%	1.2%	3.5%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	11.3%	1.2%	3.5%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	11.3%	1.2%	3.5%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	3.5%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	3.5%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	3.5%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	3.5%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	3.5%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	7.7%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	2.9%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	3.8%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	3.8%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	7.2%	1.2%	3.8%	7.8%	31.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:34+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	3.8%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	3.8%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	3.8%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	3.8%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	3.8%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:16+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	2.2%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.2%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	10.7%	0.1%	2.2%	10.4%	20.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	2.2%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	2.2%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:03+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	2.2%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	2.2%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	3.3%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	3.3%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	3.3%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	3.3%	10.4%	20.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	3.3%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	3.3%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	3.3%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	3.3%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%	25.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	1.8%	8.9%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	84.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	82.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗