KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

44%

38%

35%

25%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

EPSNO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.50u · EPS −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	15.5%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	8.5%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	13.4%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	4.8%	37.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	40.3%	48.6%	8.7%	—	45.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	35.0%	51.5%	10.6%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	19.5%	40.2%	4.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	29.5%	46.8%	5.7%	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	0.3%	52.4%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	29.3%	42.5%	3.3%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	12.3%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	33.8%	43.9%	5.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	32.6%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	27.4%	41.8%	4.3%	—	12.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	37.9%	50.0%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	29.6%	48.0%	6.2%	21.0%	21.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	46.0%	—	—	11.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	50%	82.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	81.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	81.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	80.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	77.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗