KMEM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

44%

38%

35%

25%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

EPSNO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.50u · EPS −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:37+00:00	59.6%	38.6%	57.0%	56.8%	62.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	59.6%	38.6%	52.3%	56.8%	62.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	59.6%	38.6%	52.3%	56.8%	62.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	59.6%	38.6%	52.3%	56.8%	62.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:19+00:00	47.1%	38.6%	52.3%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	47.1%	38.6%	52.3%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	47.1%	38.6%	52.3%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	47.1%	38.6%	52.3%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	47.1%	38.6%	52.3%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	47.1%	35.8%	42.4%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	47.1%	35.8%	42.4%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	47.1%	35.8%	42.4%	43.4%	58.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	47.1%	35.8%	42.4%	43.5%	58.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	47.1%	35.9%	42.4%	43.4%	58.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	47.1%	31.5%	42.4%	43.4%	58.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	47.1%	31.5%	42.4%	43.4%	58.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	47.1%	31.5%	45.7%	43.4%	58.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	47.1%	31.5%	45.7%	43.4%	58.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	47.1%	31.5%	45.7%	43.4%	58.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	47.1%	31.5%	45.7%	43.4%	58.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	37.0%	31.5%	45.7%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	37.0%	31.5%	45.7%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	37.0%	31.5%	45.7%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	37.0%	31.5%	45.7%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	37.0%	32.1%	35.0%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	37.0%	32.0%	35.0%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	37.0%	32.0%	35.0%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	37.0%	32.0%	35.0%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	43.4%	32.0%	35.0%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	43.4%	32.0%	35.0%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	43.4%	32.0%	35.0%	31.9%	45.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:39+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	26.3%	31.4%	50.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	31.3%	31.4%	50.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	31.3%	31.4%	50.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	32.1%	23.8%	31.3%	31.4%	50.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00	43.1%	23.8%	31.3%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	43.1%	23.8%	31.3%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	43.1%	23.8%	31.3%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	43.1%	23.8%	31.3%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	43.1%	23.8%	31.3%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	43.1%	22.7%	43.6%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	43.1%	22.7%	43.6%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	43.1%	22.7%	43.6%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	33.2%	22.7%	43.6%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	33.1%	22.7%	43.6%	33.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:25+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	38.4%	22.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	38.4%	22.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	51.1%	22.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	51.1%	22.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	51.1%	22.4%	42.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%	22.4%	35.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%	22.4%	35.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%	22.4%	35.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	50.0%	20.6%	51.1%	22.4%	35.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00	50.0%	26.2%	44.1%	37.7%	35.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	50.0%	26.2%	44.1%	37.7%	35.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	50.0%	26.2%	44.1%	37.7%	35.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	50.0%	26.2%	44.1%	37.7%	35.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	50.0%	26.2%	44.1%	37.7%	35.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	50.0%	26.2%	44.1%	37.7%	35.3%
2026-10-20T15:31:49+00:00	50.0%	25.0%	44.1%	37.7%	35.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	50%	82.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	81.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	81.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	80.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	77.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗