KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

41%

34%

28%

14%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.8¢Risks 28.80u

EPSNO 71.2¢Risks 71.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.20u · EPS −71.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	35.8%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	13.9%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	8.3%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	0.3%	20.8%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	18.0%	13.0%	1.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	19.4%	35.0%	6.4%	18.9%	21.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	34.7%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	80.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	80.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	79.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	77.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	78.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	77.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗