KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

41%

34%

28%

14%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.8¢Risks 28.80u

EPSNO 71.2¢Risks 71.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.20u · EPS −71.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00	51.4%	30.4%	44.9%	19.7%	12.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	51.4%	30.4%	44.9%	19.7%	12.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	51.4%	30.4%	44.9%	19.7%	12.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	51.4%	30.4%	44.9%	19.7%	12.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	51.4%	30.4%	44.9%	19.7%	12.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:28+00:00	44.5%	19.1%	43.0%	10.4%	47.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	44.5%	19.1%	43.0%	10.4%	47.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	44.5%	19.1%	45.3%	10.4%	47.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	44.5%	19.1%	45.3%	10.4%	47.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	44.5%	19.1%	45.3%	10.4%	47.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	34.2%	19.1%	45.3%	10.4%	43.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	34.2%	19.1%	45.3%	10.4%	43.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	34.2%	19.1%	45.3%	10.4%	43.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	34.2%	19.1%	45.3%	10.4%	43.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00	34.2%	15.2%	40.7%	27.7%	43.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	34.2%	15.2%	40.7%	27.7%	43.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	34.2%	15.2%	40.7%	27.7%	43.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	34.2%	15.2%	40.7%	27.7%	43.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	34.2%	15.2%	40.7%	27.7%	43.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	34.2%	15.2%	40.7%	27.7%	43.9%
2026-10-20T15:31:50+00:00	34.2%	13.7%	40.7%	27.7%	43.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	80.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	80.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	79.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	77.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	78.4°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	77.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗