KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

31%

15%

12%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.3¢Risks 23.35u

ICONNO 76.6¢Risks 76.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.65u · ICON −76.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	25.2%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	8.1%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	4.3%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.1%	12.4%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	10.2%	6.9%	0.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	10.9%	22.6%	2.9%	10.6%	12.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	22.1%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	80.8°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	76.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	70.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗