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KMEM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
38%
WN2
31%
EPS
15%
HRES
12%
ICON
9%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 23.3¢Risks 23.35u
VS
ICONNO 76.6¢Risks 76.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.65u · ICON −76.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:0037.7%14.6%31.1%12.2%9.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0037.7%14.6%31.1%12.2%9.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0037.7%14.6%31.1%12.2%9.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0037.7%14.6%31.1%12.2%9.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:0037.7%14.6%31.1%12.2%9.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single38%81.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 231%80.8°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%79.6°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES12%76.0°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON9%70.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗