KMIA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

66%

64%

62%

26%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

ICONNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.70u · ICON −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	15.9%	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	38.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	36.6%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	20.8%	41.9%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	31.7%	44.4%	20.4%	—	30.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	35.7%	47.8%	16.1%	—	29.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	34.4%	52.3%	43.2%	—	30.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	14.5%	42.1%	15.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	10.2%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	33.0%	54.2%	33.8%	—	25.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	44.0%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	37.1%	58.7%	57.8%	—	29.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	41.1%	63.2%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	38.2%	65.3%	40.0%	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	42.5%	63.0%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	40.4%	64.3%	51.0%	—	28.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	55.0%	63.7%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	45.9%	67.0%	34.0%	—	30.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	40.6%	67.4%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	39.2%	68.9%	51.1%	—	24.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	41.0%	70.4%	5.4%	—	24.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	46.5%	63.7%	45.4%	53.5%	21.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	45.2%	67.5%	60.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	36.5%	66.9%	56.2%	56.2%	26.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	50.0%	68.7%	52.6%	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	40.7%	68.1%	36.8%	44.6%	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	36.3%	72.4%	39.0%	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	48.5%	75.5%	55.8%	29.3%	25.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	23.6%	71.5%	33.8%	—	16.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	13.4%	77.4%	56.3%	54.7%	20.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	25.4%	79.7%	56.6%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0081
NWS forecast	87%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0164
IFS Ensemble	81%	90.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0357
AIFS Single	66%	89.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1122
WeatherNext 2	64%	89.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1303
IFS HRES	62%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1475
ICON	26%	86.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5550

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261016-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗