KMIA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 13:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

66%

64%

62%

26%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

ICONNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.70u · ICON −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:02+00:00	55.0%	85.7%	62.7%	35.3%	56.9%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	55.0%	85.7%	62.7%	35.3%	56.9%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	55.0%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	56.9%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	55.0%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	56.9%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	55.0%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	56.9%
2026-10-10T08:03:32+00:00	60.5%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	60.5%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	60.5%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	60.5%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	60.5%	85.7%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	60.5%	66.0%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	60.5%	66.0%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:25+00:00	60.5%	66.0%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:55+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T14:53:49+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	54.0%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	59.6%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	59.6%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T18:40:20+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	59.6%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	56.8%	66.0%	59.6%	35.3%	58.6%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	56.0%	66.0%	59.6%	35.3%	58.0%
2026-10-10T20:55:59+00:00	56.0%	66.0%	59.6%	35.3%	58.0%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	56.0%	66.0%	59.6%	35.3%	58.0%
2026-10-10T22:27:07+00:00	56.0%	66.0%	59.6%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	56.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	56.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	56.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:11+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:43+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.0%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.9%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.9%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	59.0%	66.0%	57.9%	53.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T07:31:52+00:00	57.3%	66.0%	57.9%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	57.3%	66.0%	57.9%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	57.3%	66.0%	57.9%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	57.3%	66.0%	57.9%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:43+00:00	57.3%	66.0%	57.9%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	57.3%	59.9%	61.7%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	57.3%	59.9%	61.7%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	57.3%	59.9%	61.7%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:42+00:00	54.9%	59.9%	61.7%	48.6%	58.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	54.9%	59.9%	61.6%	48.6%	57.9%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	54.9%	62.3%	61.6%	48.6%	57.9%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	54.9%	62.3%	61.6%	48.6%	57.9%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	54.9%	62.3%	61.6%	48.6%	57.9%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	54.9%	62.3%	53.0%	48.6%	57.9%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	54.9%	62.3%	53.0%	48.6%	57.9%
2026-10-11T18:58:18+00:00	54.9%	62.3%	53.0%	48.6%	57.9%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	53.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	53.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	53.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	53.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	53.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	54.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	50.0%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	63.5%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	63.5%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	58.1%	62.3%	63.5%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-12T07:48:06+00:00	58.6%	62.3%	63.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	58.6%	62.3%	63.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	58.6%	62.3%	63.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	58.6%	62.3%	63.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	58.6%	62.3%	63.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	58.6%	62.3%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	58.6%	75.4%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	58.6%	75.4%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	58.5%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	44.4%	50.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	62.0%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:43+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	61.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	63.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	63.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	60.3%	75.4%	63.6%	54.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00	62.7%	75.4%	63.6%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	62.7%	75.4%	63.6%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	62.7%	75.4%	63.6%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	62.7%	75.4%	63.6%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	62.7%	75.4%	63.6%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	62.7%	76.6%	60.5%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	62.7%	76.6%	60.5%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	62.7%	76.6%	60.5%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	67.1%	76.6%	60.5%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	67.1%	76.6%	60.5%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	60.5%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	60.5%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	47.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	53.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	53.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	53.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	66.1%	57.1%	53.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	67.1%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	65.4%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	53.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	64.3%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	64.3%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	64.3%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	64.3%	74.8%	67.2%	60.6%	35.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	64.3%	74.8%	67.2%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:47+00:00	64.3%	70.1%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	64.3%	70.1%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	64.3%	70.1%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	62.5%	70.1%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	62.5%	70.1%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	62.5%	68.2%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	62.5%	68.2%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	62.5%	68.2%	69.7%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	62.5%	68.2%	74.1%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	62.5%	68.2%	74.1%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	62.5%	68.2%	74.1%	52.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	74.1%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	74.1%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	74.1%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	74.1%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	74.1%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	57.8%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	58.9%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	62.6%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	62.6%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	60.6%	68.2%	62.6%	33.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	60.0%	68.2%	62.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	60.0%	68.2%	62.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	60.0%	68.2%	62.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	60.0%	68.2%	62.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	60.0%	68.2%	62.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	60.0%	68.2%	60.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	60.0%	79.4%	60.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	60.0%	79.4%	60.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	60.0%	79.4%	60.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	60.0%	78.8%	59.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	60.0%	77.3%	59.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	60.0%	77.3%	59.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	60.0%	77.3%	59.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	60.0%	77.3%	59.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	60.0%	77.3%	59.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	60.0%	77.3%	59.5%	50.0%	24.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	61.9%	77.3%	59.5%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	61.9%	77.3%	59.5%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	61.9%	77.3%	59.5%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	61.9%	77.3%	59.5%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	61.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	61.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	61.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	60.8%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	60.9%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	28.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	66.5%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	25.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	66.5%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	25.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	66.5%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	25.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	66.5%	77.3%	47.3%	61.6%	25.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	66.5%	81.1%	63.9%	61.6%	25.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	66.5%	81.1%	63.9%	61.6%	25.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	66.5%	81.1%	63.9%	61.6%	25.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	66.5%	81.1%	63.9%	61.6%	25.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	90.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0081
NWS forecast	87%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.0164
IFS Ensemble	81%	90.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0357
AIFS Single	66%	89.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1122
WeatherNext 2	64%	89.4°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1303
IFS HRES	62%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.1475
ICON	26%	86.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5550

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261016-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗