KMIA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

62%

61%

60%

60%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.9¢Risks 73.90u

WN2NO 26.1¢Risks 26.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.10u · WN2 −26.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	35.1%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	27.2%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	57.5%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	60.3%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	31.1%	72.4%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	48.6%	36.2%	41.6%	—	38.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	42.0%	43.4%	—	37.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	51.5%	57.6%	36.5%	—	30.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	47.6%	56.4%	32.3%	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	27.0%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	41.7%	61.5%	48.3%	—	35.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	41.5%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	38.8%	60.4%	34.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	35.9%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	47.2%	71.8%	54.6%	—	39.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	54.7%	74.7%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	58.7%	81.7%	75.3%	—	37.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	55.0%	86.5%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	57.2%	91.0%	76.5%	—	34.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	43.7%	38.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	41.3%	36.1%	75.3%	19.0%	32.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	61.1%	41.0%	20.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	28.0%	48.8%	76.7%	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	34.7%	68.5%	51.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	34.2%	51.2%	84.9%	69.2%	21.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	25.9%	73.1%	63.9%	—	18.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	47.3%	82.7%	73.9%	23.0%	23.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	47.2%	97.3%	47.2%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	55.8%	97.5%	42.8%	48.5%	29.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	61.9%	92.0%	66.2%	—	18.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	77.4%	95.6%	59.4%	60.9%	31.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	96.3%	25.4%	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	88.4°F	1.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0139
National Blend	67%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1082
AIFS Single	62%	87.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1444
ICON	61%	87.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1552
IFS HRES	60%	87.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1576
WeatherNext 2	60%	87.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1632
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261017-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗