KMIA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

62%

61%

60%

60%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.9¢Risks 73.90u

WN2NO 26.1¢Risks 26.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.10u · WN2 −26.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:07+00:00	42.9%	94.0%	64.2%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	42.9%	94.0%	62.0%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	42.9%	94.0%	62.0%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	42.9%	94.0%	62.0%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	50.7%	94.0%	62.0%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-11T02:14:11+00:00	50.7%	94.0%	62.0%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	50.7%	94.0%	62.0%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	50.7%	94.0%	62.0%	50.0%	66.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	62.0%	90.5%	69.7%	41.8%	65.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	69.7%	41.8%	65.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	69.7%	41.8%	65.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	61.6%	41.8%	65.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	61.6%	41.8%	65.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	61.6%	41.8%	65.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	61.6%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	61.6%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	61.6%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	61.6%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	66.2%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	66.2%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	66.2%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	62.0%	91.9%	66.2%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	50.8%	91.9%	66.2%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	50.8%	91.9%	66.2%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	50.8%	91.9%	66.2%	52.1%	60.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	53.5%	88.2%	54.3%	51.6%	52.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	53.5%	88.2%	54.3%	51.6%	52.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	53.5%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	52.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	53.5%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	52.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	53.5%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	52.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	53.5%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	52.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	56.9%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	60.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	56.9%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	60.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	56.9%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	60.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	56.9%	88.2%	60.6%	51.6%	60.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	56.9%	88.2%	59.6%	60.3%	60.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	56.9%	88.2%	59.6%	60.3%	60.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	56.9%	88.2%	59.6%	60.3%	60.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	62.0%	88.2%	59.6%	60.3%	60.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	62.0%	88.2%	59.6%	60.3%	60.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	62.0%	88.2%	59.6%	60.3%	60.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	88.4°F	1.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0139
National Blend	67%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1082
AIFS Single	62%	87.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1444
ICON	61%	87.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1552
IFS HRES	60%	87.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1576
WeatherNext 2	60%	87.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1632
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261017-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗