KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

34%

30%

28%

21%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

ICONNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.40u · ICON −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	35.2%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	76.1%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	22.6%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	29.8%	11.5%	33.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	41.3%	35.0%	21.0%	—	35.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	38.0%	31.6%	21.6%	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	23.6%	30.9%	25.5%	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	23.1%	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	19.5%	60.7%	16.8%	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	19.0%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	24.1%	37.9%	43.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	21.5%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	14.9%	17.2%	44.5%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	17.7%	21.0%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	17.1%	17.1%	21.0%	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	12.4%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	26.8%	11.8%	24.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	22.0%	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	31.1%	8.5%	9.0%	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	16.8%	9.7%	1.5%	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	13.4%	9.4%	6.8%	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	20.8%	11.9%	8.7%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	25.6%	8.9%	3.0%	11.2%	8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	30.2%	5.3%	12.2%	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	29.5%	8.4%	12.0%	0.2%	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	28.8%	19.1%	6.2%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	21.2%	8.3%	4.4%	0.2%	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	14.4%	17.2%	5.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	11.7%	34.6%	22.6%	0.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.6%	33.9%	21.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	86.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	84.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	83.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	83.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	82.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗