KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

34%

30%

28%

21%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

ICONNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.40u · ICON −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	50.0%	93.0%	48.4%	55.0%	56.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	50.0%	93.0%	48.4%	55.0%	56.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	50.0%	93.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	50.0%	93.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	50.0%	93.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:06+00:00	59.7%	93.0%	54.0%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	59.7%	93.0%	54.0%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	59.7%	93.0%	54.0%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	59.7%	93.0%	54.0%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	59.7%	93.0%	54.0%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	59.7%	93.0%	53.5%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	59.7%	82.8%	53.5%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	59.7%	82.8%	53.5%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	41.0%	82.8%	53.5%	45.8%	62.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	41.1%	82.8%	53.5%	45.8%	62.8%
2026-10-13T04:15:43+00:00	41.1%	82.8%	50.0%	32.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	41.1%	82.8%	50.0%	32.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	41.1%	82.8%	41.3%	32.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	41.1%	82.8%	41.3%	32.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	41.1%	82.8%	41.3%	32.4%	60.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00	32.0%	82.8%	41.3%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	32.0%	82.8%	41.3%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	32.0%	82.8%	41.3%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	32.0%	82.8%	41.3%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	32.0%	82.8%	41.3%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	32.0%	59.9%	33.8%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	32.0%	59.9%	33.8%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	32.0%	59.9%	33.8%	25.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	28.6%	59.9%	34.0%	25.5%	43.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	28.6%	59.9%	34.0%	25.5%	43.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	28.6%	57.4%	34.0%	25.5%	43.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	28.6%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	43.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	28.6%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	43.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	28.6%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	43.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	28.6%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	43.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	28.6%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	43.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	30.0%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	39.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	30.0%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	39.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	30.0%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	39.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	30.0%	57.4%	34.0%	25.8%	39.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	30.0%	57.4%	35.8%	31.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	30.0%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	30.0%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	32.8%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	39.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	31.6%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	31.6%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	31.6%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	31.6%	57.4%	35.8%	30.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	31.6%	57.4%	35.8%	57.1%	37.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:47+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	38.4%	57.1%	37.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	41.5%	57.1%	37.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	41.5%	57.1%	37.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	31.6%	72.3%	41.5%	57.1%	37.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	41.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	41.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	41.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	41.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	41.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	42.5%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	34.3%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	34.3%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	34.0%	72.3%	34.3%	30.2%	28.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	31.2%	72.3%	34.3%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	31.2%	72.3%	34.3%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	31.2%	72.3%	34.3%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	31.2%	72.3%	34.3%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	31.2%	72.3%	34.3%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	31.2%	72.3%	33.9%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	31.2%	62.1%	33.9%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	31.2%	62.1%	33.9%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	28.0%	62.1%	33.9%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	28.0%	61.8%	33.9%	30.3%	21.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	28.0%	60.2%	33.9%	30.3%	21.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	86.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	84.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	83.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	83.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	82.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗