KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

71%

63%

48%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

HRESNO 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.30u · HRES −30.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	60.0%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	43.6%	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	74.5%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	37.0%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	53.9%	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	36.1%	75.1%	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	71.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	58.4%	62.4%	25.2%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	57.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	67.0%	67.0%	49.3%	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	24.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	50.0%	41.7%	61.3%	41.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	66.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	54.8%	65.5%	56.4%	35.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	25.6%	55.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	72.8%	53.3%	50.0%	40.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	69.7%	62.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	75.2%	57.8%	46.5%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	65.8%	64.1%	—	36.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	73.4%	48.2%	37.3%	34.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	74.7%	67.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	61.5%	67.0%	40.4%	34.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	73.5%	50.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	65.1%	54.1%	34.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	65.5%	73.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	56.5%	67.9%	34.1%	31.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	46.6%	68.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	85.8°F	1.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	85.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	85.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	84.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	84.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	83.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗