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KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
WN2
75%
ICON
71%
AIFS
63%
HRES
48%
Consensus
75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 69.7¢Risks 69.70u
VS
HRESNO 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.30u · HRES −30.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS HRES: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00IFS HRES: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00IFS HRES: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00IFS HRES: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS HRES: 54.5% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00IFS HRES: 48.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00ICON: 70.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0010-18 15:4110-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:0062.0%91.2%75.3%54.5%68.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:0062.0%91.2%75.3%54.5%68.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%54.5%68.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%54.5%68.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%54.5%68.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%54.5%68.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:0062.0%91.2%77.1%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:0062.0%91.2%75.3%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:0062.0%91.2%75.3%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:0062.0%91.2%75.3%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:0062.8%91.2%75.3%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:0062.8%91.2%75.3%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:0062.8%91.2%75.3%48.2%70.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0062.8%91.2%75.3%48.2%70.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble91%85.8°F1.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%85.8°F3.4°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON71%85.7°F4.0°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend67%84.0°F1.1°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
AIFS Single63%84.9°F4.3°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast55%84.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
IFS HRES48%83.3°F4.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗