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KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
66%
WN2
62%
AIFS
61%
ICON
45%
HRES
35%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u
VS
HRESNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · HRES −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 58.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 43.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 41.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 39.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 52.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-13 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0022.4%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0032.0%———24.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0033.0%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0061.0%———46.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0046.3%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0045.2%———52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0060.0%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0057.4%———45.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0046.3%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0063.1%———50.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0034.9%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0049.5%———47.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0039.5%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0048.9%———48.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0048.9%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0045.8%———47.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0052.7%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0051.1%———43.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0052.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0047.8%———46.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0046.1%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0047.2%———48.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0044.2%—84.4%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0029.3%—75.1%—44.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0036.5%—64.0%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0030.2%———44.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0031.6%—66.2%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0038.8%—27.5%—40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0036.2%—56.4%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0039.1%—33.0%—37.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0037.0%—58.6%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0035.5%24.4%56.1%—38.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0037.1%—73.9%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0033.0%55.6%57.7%25.2%35.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0032.7%—47.9%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0031.7%64.3%37.8%43.4%29.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0030.0%—34.7%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0030.9%61.3%40.2%41.7%27.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0032.6%—29.9%—26.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0029.5%50.0%33.7%39.7%28.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0025.0%18.9%36.4%—24.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0022.5%22.5%45.0%12.5%25.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0022.6%44.9%50.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0028.4%30.7%38.8%43.0%21.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—36.8%35.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble66%84.2°F1.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%84.6°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single61%84.8°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%84.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON45%82.9°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend41%83.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES35%81.6°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗