KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

62%

61%

45%

35%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u

HRESNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · HRES −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	58.8%	72.2%	65.8%	31.9%	78.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	58.8%	72.2%	65.8%	31.9%	78.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	58.8%	72.2%	65.8%	31.9%	78.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	58.8%	72.2%	69.6%	31.9%	78.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	58.8%	72.2%	69.6%	31.9%	78.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	58.8%	72.2%	69.6%	31.9%	78.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	69.6%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	69.6%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	69.6%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	69.6%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	69.6%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	64.2%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	64.2%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	60.9%	72.2%	64.2%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	64.2%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	64.2%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	64.2%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	64.2%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	65.0%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	65.0%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	65.0%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00	63.0%	72.2%	65.0%	37.5%	76.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	59.6%	72.2%	65.0%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	59.6%	72.2%	65.0%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	59.6%	72.2%	65.0%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	59.6%	72.2%	65.0%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	59.6%	72.2%	65.0%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	59.6%	75.4%	65.1%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	59.6%	75.4%	65.1%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	59.6%	75.4%	65.1%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	54.8%	75.4%	65.1%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	54.8%	75.4%	65.1%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	54.8%	77.3%	65.1%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	54.8%	77.3%	65.1%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	54.8%	77.3%	59.6%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	54.8%	77.3%	59.6%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	54.8%	77.3%	59.6%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	54.8%	77.3%	59.6%	37.8%	67.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	53.2%	77.3%	59.6%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:15+00:00	53.2%	77.3%	59.6%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	53.2%	77.3%	59.6%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	53.2%	77.3%	59.6%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	53.2%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	53.2%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	53.2%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:32+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	61.5%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	58.7%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	58.7%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	54.0%	77.3%	58.7%	33.9%	44.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	61.1%	77.3%	58.7%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	61.1%	77.3%	58.7%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	61.1%	77.3%	58.7%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	61.1%	77.3%	58.7%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	61.1%	77.3%	58.7%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00	61.1%	66.0%	61.6%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	61.1%	66.0%	61.6%	35.2%	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	84.2°F	1.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	84.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	45%	82.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	81.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗