KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

62%

57%

51%

43%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

AIFSNO 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.65u · AIFS −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	43.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	65.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	78.1%	—	47.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	47.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	56.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	66.4%	—	43.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	40.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	19.8%	58.1%	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	55.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	38.9%	54.2%	12.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	38.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	39.2%	55.1%	32.3%	38.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	53.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	84.1°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	83.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	82.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	81.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	80.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗