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KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
92%
ICON
62%
WN2
57%
HRES
51%
AIFS
43%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 67.3¢Risks 67.35u
VS
AIFSNO 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.65u · AIFS −32.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:0068.1%97.7%57.8%34.3%61.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:0068.1%97.7%62.3%34.3%61.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0068.1%97.7%62.3%34.3%61.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0068.1%97.7%62.3%34.3%61.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:0042.7%97.7%62.3%50.6%62.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0042.7%97.7%62.3%50.6%62.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0042.7%97.7%62.3%50.6%62.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0042.7%97.7%62.3%50.6%62.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0042.7%97.7%62.3%50.6%62.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:0042.7%92.0%56.8%50.6%62.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0042.7%92.0%56.8%50.6%62.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble92%84.1°F1.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON62%83.7°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%82.3°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES51%81.6°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single43%80.5°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗