KMIA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

22%

17%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.0¢Risks 15.95u

EPSNO 84.0¢Risks 84.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.05u · EPS −84.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	10.4%	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	38.0%	14.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	33.5%	11.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	28.2%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	12.3%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	25.8%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.5%	14.3%	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	19.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	81.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	83.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	81.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	84.5°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261026-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗