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KMIA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
27%
WN2
22%
AIFS
17%
HRES
16%
EPS
5%
Consensus
8%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 16.0¢Risks 15.95u
VS
EPSNO 84.0¢Risks 84.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.05u · EPS −84.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:59+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:59+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:59+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:4910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:59+00:0016.9%3.9%28.0%16.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0016.9%3.9%28.0%16.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0016.9%3.9%28.0%16.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0016.9%3.9%28.0%16.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0016.9%3.9%28.0%16.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:0016.9%4.8%21.7%16.4%27.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0016.9%4.8%21.7%16.4%27.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON27%81.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 222%83.5°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single17%82.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES16%81.2°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend9%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%84.5°F1.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261026-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗