KMKE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

77%

76%

75%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

HRESNO 12.7¢Risks 12.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.75u · HRES −12.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	11.4%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	26.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	15.9%	52.7%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	63.8%	50.7%	7.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	65.7%	17.0%	28.5%	—	47.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	74.2%	12.9%	49.2%	—	48.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	69.8%	27.4%	50.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	2.2%	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	58.3%	19.5%	58.3%	—	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	23.9%	26.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	27.7%	41.3%	60.4%	—	59.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	44.6%	48.2%	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	40.9%	46.3%	38.2%	—	53.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	52.8%	47.2%	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	53.9%	51.0%	46.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	58.9%	61.8%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	54.1%	54.1%	21.2%	—	56.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	73.0%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	77.8%	46.7%	35.1%	—	64.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	81.7%	51.1%	0.0%	—	60.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	80.1%	48.8%	55.8%	0.0%	68.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	88.0%	51.2%	50.0%	—	75.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	87.6%	51.2%	63.4%	65.8%	83.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	48.7%	72.0%	—	80.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	67.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗