KMKE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

77%

76%

75%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

HRESNO 12.7¢Risks 12.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.75u · HRES −12.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	79.8%	42.1%	91.1%	41.6%	79.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00	79.8%	42.1%	91.1%	41.6%	79.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	79.8%	42.1%	91.5%	41.6%	79.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	79.8%	42.1%	91.5%	41.6%	79.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	79.8%	42.1%	91.5%	41.6%	79.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	79.8%	42.1%	91.5%	41.6%	79.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	80.8%	42.1%	91.5%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	80.8%	42.1%	91.5%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	80.8%	42.1%	91.5%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	80.8%	42.1%	91.5%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	80.8%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	80.8%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	80.8%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	88.9%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	80.3%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	83.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	77.8%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	77.8%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	77.8%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	77.8%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	77.8%	42.1%	89.7%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	77.8%	40.7%	95.1%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	77.8%	40.7%	95.1%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	77.8%	40.7%	95.1%	51.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	76.6%	40.7%	95.1%	49.3%	81.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	76.6%	40.7%	95.1%	49.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	76.6%	39.6%	95.1%	49.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	76.6%	39.6%	95.1%	49.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	76.6%	39.6%	95.1%	49.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	76.6%	39.6%	92.8%	49.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	76.6%	39.6%	92.8%	49.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	76.6%	39.6%	92.8%	49.3%	81.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	92.8%	49.3%	73.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	92.8%	49.3%	73.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	92.8%	49.3%	73.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	92.8%	49.3%	73.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	92.8%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	80.1%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.3%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.1%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.1%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	84.3%	39.6%	95.1%	57.5%	73.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00	88.5%	39.6%	95.1%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	88.5%	39.6%	95.1%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	88.5%	39.6%	95.1%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	88.5%	39.6%	95.1%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	88.5%	39.6%	95.1%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	88.5%	60.9%	96.0%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	88.5%	60.9%	96.0%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	88.5%	60.9%	96.0%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	86.3%	60.9%	96.0%	67.7%	41.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	86.2%	60.9%	95.9%	67.7%	41.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	78.7%	55.1%	94.2%	60.6%	60.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	78.7%	55.3%	94.2%	60.6%	60.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	78.7%	55.3%	94.2%	60.6%	60.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	78.7%	55.3%	93.1%	60.6%	60.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	78.7%	55.3%	93.1%	60.6%	60.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	78.7%	55.3%	93.1%	60.6%	60.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	93.1%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	93.1%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	93.1%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	93.1%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	93.1%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	81.3%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	95.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	96.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	96.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	81.9%	55.3%	96.2%	54.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	83.8%	55.3%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	83.8%	55.3%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	83.8%	55.3%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	83.8%	55.3%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	83.8%	55.3%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	83.8%	61.2%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	83.8%	61.2%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	83.8%	61.2%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	80.6%	61.2%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	80.7%	61.2%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	80.7%	62.5%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	80.7%	62.5%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	80.7%	62.5%	98.3%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	80.7%	62.5%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	80.7%	62.5%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	80.7%	62.5%	96.2%	67.0%	75.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	96.2%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	96.2%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	96.2%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	96.2%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	96.2%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	83.3%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:36+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	97.9%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	99.3%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	99.3%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	91.7%	62.5%	99.3%	66.1%	76.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	94.6%	62.5%	99.3%	66.1%	76.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	94.6%	62.5%	99.3%	66.1%	76.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	94.6%	62.5%	99.3%	66.1%	76.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	94.6%	62.5%	99.3%	66.1%	76.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	94.6%	77.1%	99.5%	75.0%	76.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	94.6%	77.1%	99.5%	75.0%	76.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	94.6%	77.1%	99.5%	75.0%	76.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	94.6%	77.1%	99.5%	75.0%	76.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	94.6%	77.1%	99.5%	75.0%	76.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	94.6%	77.1%	99.5%	75.0%	76.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	67.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	67.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗