KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

70%

37%

24%

21%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.0¢Risks 47.05u

HRESNO 53.0¢Risks 52.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.95u · HRES −52.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	12.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	22.1%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	6.4%	31.1%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	81.1%	42.3%	7.7%	—	34.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	22.6%	3.9%	12.4%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	24.5%	43.9%	20.0%	—	34.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	20.1%	15.4%	20.6%	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	1.8%	15.8%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	15.7%	29.3%	12.5%	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	26.7%	33.4%	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	20.2%	33.8%	17.2%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	14.0%	5.5%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	18.4%	23.7%	9.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	19.6%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	32.1%	29.6%	2.7%	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	30.8%	30.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	29.4%	31.2%	5.5%	—	7.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	31.6%	27.9%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	14.3%	10.4%	10.9%	12.5%	9.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	4.0%	2.2%	—	6.7%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	3.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	71.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	70.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	66.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	63.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗