KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

70%

37%

24%

21%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.0¢Risks 47.05u

HRESNO 53.0¢Risks 52.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.95u · HRES −52.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	75.4%	24.1%	63.3%	27.9%	40.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	75.4%	24.1%	63.3%	27.9%	40.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	75.4%	24.1%	80.9%	27.9%	40.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	75.4%	24.1%	80.9%	27.9%	40.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	75.4%	24.1%	80.9%	27.9%	40.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	75.4%	24.1%	80.9%	27.9%	40.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	80.9%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	80.9%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	80.9%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	80.9%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	69.5%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	69.5%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	69.5%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	65.7%	24.1%	69.5%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	72.8%	24.1%	69.5%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	72.8%	24.1%	69.5%	21.3%	36.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	72.8%	24.1%	69.5%	21.3%	36.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	71.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	70.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	66.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	63.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗