KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

52%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.3¢Risks 34.30u

ICONNO 65.7¢Risks 65.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.70u · ICON −65.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	2.1%	15.9%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	63.8%	23.5%	2.5%	—	17.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	9.6%	1.0%	4.4%	—	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	10.3%	23.4%	7.8%	—	16.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	7.5%	5.3%	7.8%	—	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	0.4%	5.3%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	5.1%	12.0%	3.8%	—	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	10.3%	14.2%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	6.8%	14.1%	5.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	3.9%	1.1%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	5.5%	7.9%	2.3%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	5.9%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	11.6%	10.2%	0.4%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	10.5%	10.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	9.4%	10.3%	0.9%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	10.1%	8.3%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	2.9%	1.9%	2.0%	2.4%	1.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	0.5%	0.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	71.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	67.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	2%	64.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗