KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

52%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.3¢Risks 34.30u

ICONNO 65.7¢Risks 65.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.70u · ICON −65.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00	74.5%	19.1%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	74.5%	19.1%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	74.5%	19.1%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	74.5%	19.1%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	74.5%	19.1%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:20+00:00	74.5%	19.1%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	74.5%	13.7%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	74.5%	13.7%	69.1%	12.5%	22.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	68.2%	13.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	68.2%	13.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00	68.2%	12.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00	68.2%	12.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	68.2%	12.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	68.2%	12.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	68.2%	12.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	68.2%	12.7%	68.9%	12.7%	22.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	65.7%	12.7%	68.9%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	65.7%	12.7%	68.9%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	65.7%	12.7%	68.9%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	65.7%	12.7%	68.9%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	65.7%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	65.6%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	65.6%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	76.1%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	63.7%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	74.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	59.5%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	59.5%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	59.5%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	59.5%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	59.5%	12.7%	74.2%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	59.5%	4.4%	68.1%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	59.5%	4.4%	68.1%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	59.5%	4.4%	68.1%	35.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	58.8%	4.4%	68.1%	14.4%	31.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	58.8%	4.5%	68.1%	14.4%	31.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	58.8%	4.4%	68.1%	14.4%	31.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	58.8%	4.3%	68.1%	14.4%	31.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	58.8%	4.3%	68.1%	14.4%	31.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	58.8%	4.3%	65.0%	14.4%	31.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	58.8%	4.3%	65.0%	14.4%	31.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	58.8%	4.3%	65.0%	14.4%	31.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	65.0%	14.4%	34.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	65.0%	14.4%	34.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	65.0%	14.4%	34.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	65.0%	14.4%	34.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	65.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	52.2%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	50.0%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	48.3%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	48.3%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	48.3%	19.8%	34.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00	54.0%	4.3%	48.3%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	54.0%	4.3%	48.3%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	54.0%	4.3%	48.3%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	54.0%	4.3%	48.3%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	54.0%	4.3%	48.3%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	54.0%	7.6%	34.9%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	54.0%	7.6%	34.9%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	54.0%	7.6%	34.9%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	53.2%	7.6%	34.9%	13.4%	22.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	53.2%	7.6%	34.9%	13.5%	23.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	53.2%	6.5%	34.9%	13.5%	23.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	53.2%	6.5%	34.9%	13.5%	23.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	53.2%	6.5%	55.8%	13.5%	23.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	53.2%	6.5%	55.8%	13.5%	23.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	53.2%	6.5%	55.8%	13.5%	23.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	53.2%	6.5%	55.8%	13.5%	23.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	55.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	55.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	55.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	55.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	42.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	41.3%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	54.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	54.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	54.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	50.0%	6.5%	54.8%	9.5%	20.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00	48.3%	6.5%	54.8%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	48.3%	6.5%	54.8%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	48.3%	6.5%	54.8%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	48.3%	6.5%	54.8%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	48.3%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	48.3%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	48.3%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	48.3%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	45.7%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	43.6%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	43.6%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	38.0%	1.8%	43.6%	4.6%	14.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	43.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	43.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	43.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	43.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	43.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:46+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	55.3%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	61.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	61.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	40.5%	1.8%	61.6%	10.7%	14.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	44.4%	1.8%	61.6%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	44.4%	1.8%	61.6%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	44.4%	1.8%	61.6%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	44.4%	1.8%	61.6%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	44.4%	1.8%	61.6%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	44.4%	2.6%	65.0%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	44.4%	2.6%	65.0%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	44.4%	2.6%	65.0%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	35.4%	2.6%	65.0%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	35.4%	2.6%	65.1%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	35.4%	3.0%	65.1%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	35.4%	3.0%	65.1%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	35.4%	3.0%	65.1%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	35.4%	3.0%	45.3%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	35.4%	3.0%	45.3%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	35.4%	3.0%	45.3%	4.4%	14.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	45.3%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	45.3%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	45.3%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	45.3%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	45.3%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:36+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	51.2%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	79.8%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	79.8%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	54.7%	3.0%	79.8%	2.2%	13.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	54.9%	3.0%	79.8%	2.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	54.9%	3.0%	79.8%	2.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	54.9%	3.0%	79.8%	2.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	54.9%	3.0%	79.8%	2.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	54.9%	9.8%	80.8%	6.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	54.9%	9.8%	80.8%	6.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	54.9%	9.8%	80.8%	6.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	54.9%	9.8%	80.8%	6.2%	2.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	54.9%	9.5%	80.9%	6.2%	2.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	54.9%	9.5%	80.9%	6.2%	2.3%
2026-10-20T15:31:56+00:00	54.9%	10.4%	80.9%	6.2%	2.3%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	54.9%	10.4%	80.9%	6.2%	2.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:20+00:00	52.0%	10.4%	66.3%	6.2%	2.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	52.0%	10.4%	66.3%	6.2%	2.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	52.0%	10.4%	66.3%	6.2%	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	71.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	67.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	2%	64.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗