KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

65%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

HRESNO 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.00u · HRES −59.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	1.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	2.4%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	1.4%	12.4%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	6.3%	1.7%	0.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	13.2%	11.7%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	0.7%	23.4%	2.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	11.6%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	7.5%	13.1%	4.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.2%	0.4%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	2.7%	16.2%	0.8%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	11.9%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	13.1%	4.5%	0.9%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	6.0%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	6.3%	8.6%	2.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	14.8%	8.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	2.9%	6.2%	8.2%	7.9%	2.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	4.4%	—	—	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	73.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	64.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗