KMKE / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

65%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

HRESNO 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.00u · HRES −59.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:31+00:00	63.0%	11.0%	60.9%	15.2%	20.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	62.9%	11.0%	60.8%	15.3%	20.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	62.9%	10.6%	60.8%	15.3%	20.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	62.9%	10.6%	60.8%	15.3%	20.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	62.9%	10.6%	60.8%	15.3%	20.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	62.9%	10.6%	59.3%	15.3%	20.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	62.9%	10.6%	59.3%	15.3%	20.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	62.9%	10.6%	59.3%	15.3%	20.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	59.3%	15.3%	34.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	59.3%	15.3%	34.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	59.3%	15.3%	34.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	59.3%	15.3%	34.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	59.3%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	46.5%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:44+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	40.7%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	48.4%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	48.4%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	45.8%	10.6%	48.4%	23.3%	34.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00	54.4%	10.6%	48.4%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	54.4%	10.6%	48.4%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	54.4%	10.6%	48.4%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	54.4%	10.6%	48.4%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	54.4%	10.6%	48.4%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	54.4%	3.5%	40.7%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	54.4%	3.5%	40.7%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	54.4%	3.5%	40.7%	10.4%	25.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	50.0%	3.5%	40.7%	10.7%	25.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	50.0%	3.6%	40.7%	10.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:41+00:00	50.0%	2.9%	40.7%	10.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	50.0%	2.9%	40.7%	10.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	50.0%	2.9%	42.4%	10.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	50.0%	2.9%	42.4%	10.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	50.0%	2.9%	42.4%	10.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	50.0%	2.9%	42.4%	10.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	39.8%	2.9%	42.4%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	39.8%	2.9%	42.4%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	39.8%	2.9%	42.4%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	39.8%	2.9%	42.4%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	39.8%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	39.8%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	39.8%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	39.8%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	28.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	39.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	39.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	39.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	39.9%	8.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00	48.4%	3.0%	39.9%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	48.4%	3.0%	39.9%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	48.4%	3.0%	39.9%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	48.4%	3.0%	39.9%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	48.4%	3.2%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	48.4%	3.2%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	48.4%	3.2%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	48.4%	3.2%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	40.4%	3.3%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	40.4%	3.3%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	40.4%	3.0%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	40.4%	3.0%	37.6%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	40.4%	3.0%	33.1%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	40.4%	3.0%	33.1%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	40.4%	3.0%	33.1%	1.4%	23.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	33.1%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	33.1%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	33.1%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	33.1%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	33.1%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	53.9%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	62.4%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	62.4%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	62.4%	3.5%	14.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	43.1%	3.0%	62.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	43.1%	3.0%	62.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	43.1%	3.0%	62.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	43.1%	3.0%	62.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	43.1%	3.0%	62.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	43.1%	4.2%	70.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	43.1%	4.2%	70.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	43.1%	4.2%	70.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	34.7%	4.2%	70.4%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	34.7%	4.1%	70.5%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	34.7%	4.6%	70.5%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	34.7%	4.6%	70.5%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	34.7%	4.6%	70.5%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	34.7%	4.6%	53.2%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	34.7%	4.6%	53.2%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	34.7%	4.6%	53.2%	4.6%	24.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	53.2%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	53.2%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	53.2%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	53.2%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	53.2%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	33.9%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:36+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	52.1%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	74.9%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	74.9%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	52.6%	4.6%	74.9%	0.5%	15.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	64.6%	4.6%	74.9%	0.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	64.6%	4.6%	74.9%	0.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	64.6%	4.6%	74.9%	0.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	64.6%	4.6%	74.9%	0.5%	3.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	64.6%	4.8%	78.9%	3.1%	3.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	64.6%	4.8%	78.9%	3.1%	3.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	64.6%	4.8%	78.9%	3.1%	3.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	64.6%	4.8%	78.9%	3.1%	3.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	64.7%	4.8%	78.9%	3.1%	3.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	64.7%	4.8%	78.9%	3.1%	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	73.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	64.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	63.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗