KMKE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

85%

65%

51%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.3¢Risks 75.30u

HRESNO 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.70u · HRES −24.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	44.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	57.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	52.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	37.8%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	9.6%	56.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	11.5%	74.3%	13.4%	—	48.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	42.0%	78.0%	26.0%	—	47.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	79.5%	77.2%	67.7%	—	49.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	61.8%	69.8%	31.6%	—	46.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	9.9%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	50.0%	78.1%	37.7%	—	31.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	65.8%	80.5%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	77.2%	77.9%	56.1%	67.8%	64.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	72.1%	—	—	70.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	68.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	65.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	64.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗