KMKE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

85%

65%

51%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.3¢Risks 75.30u

HRESNO 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.70u · HRES −24.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00	88.5%	42.2%	97.0%	36.4%	86.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	88.5%	42.2%	98.5%	36.4%	86.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	88.5%	42.2%	98.5%	36.4%	86.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	88.5%	42.2%	98.5%	36.4%	86.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	90.5%	42.2%	98.5%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	90.5%	42.2%	98.5%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	90.5%	42.2%	98.5%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	90.5%	42.2%	98.5%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	90.5%	42.2%	98.5%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	90.5%	48.4%	99.7%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	90.5%	48.4%	99.7%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	90.5%	48.4%	99.7%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	85.3%	48.4%	99.7%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	85.4%	48.4%	99.7%	35.2%	75.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:36+00:00	93.0%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	67.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	93.0%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	67.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	93.0%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	67.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	93.0%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	67.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	93.0%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	67.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	97.1%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	85.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	97.1%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	85.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	97.1%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	85.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	97.1%	49.2%	99.5%	22.3%	85.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	97.1%	64.9%	99.8%	50.8%	85.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	97.1%	64.9%	99.8%	50.8%	85.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	97.1%	64.9%	99.8%	50.8%	85.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	97.1%	64.9%	99.8%	50.8%	85.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	97.2%	64.9%	99.8%	50.8%	85.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	97.2%	64.9%	99.8%	50.8%	85.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	68.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	65.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	64.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗