KMKE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

58%

57%

53%

24%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.65u

AIFSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.35u · AIFS −54.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	63.1%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	6.5%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	32.4%	47.3%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	89.1%	15.3%	57.7%	—	49.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	48.5%	15.6%	70.9%	45.6%	31.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	11.5%	—	—	4.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	66.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	65.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	66.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	64.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	60.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261026-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗