WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMKE / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
67%
HRES
58%
ICON
57%
WN2
53%
AIFS
24%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.65u
VS
AIFSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.35u · AIFS −54.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 58.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 57.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:0024.3%67.0%52.9%58.0%57.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0024.3%67.0%52.9%58.0%57.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0024.3%67.0%52.9%58.0%57.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0024.3%67.0%52.9%58.0%57.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:0024.3%67.0%52.9%58.0%57.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble67%66.7°F5.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES58%65.8°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON57%66.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend54%65.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%64.9°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single24%60.5°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261026-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗