KMSP / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

79%

49%

43%

41%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.70u · ICON −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	99.4%	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	9.6%	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	15.9%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	33.0%	1.1%	—	38.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	10.0%	59.4%	56.6%	—	35.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	17.9%	96.4%	34.4%	—	48.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	2.4%	99.4%	62.5%	—	41.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	99.9%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	25.8%	97.2%	22.5%	—	50.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	4.7%	91.8%	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	14.6%	47.4%	27.7%	—	29.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	10.3%	61.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	11.0%	99.5%	33.0%	—	40.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	9.6%	99.7%	—	—	34.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	27.1%	98.9%	40.4%	—	39.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	23.4%	99.4%	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	17.0%	99.9%	53.1%	—	33.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	32.6%	99.9%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	19.0%	99.3%	55.5%	—	52.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	23.1%	99.1%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	37.4%	99.8%	53.5%	4.8%	39.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	40.5%	97.8%	52.4%	—	52.4%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	57.4%	96.5%	58.7%	10.6%	77.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	42.3%	98.5%	59.0%	—	75.2%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	59.3%	99.6%	59.3%	13.4%	70.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	75.8%	99.7%	63.7%	—	68.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	62.8%	99.3%	69.5%	62.8%	92.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	57.5%	99.6%	67.5%	—	81.9%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	53.2%	99.8%	60.9%	43.7%	75.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	83.0%	98.6%	50.0%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	89.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	86.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	83.9°F	2.0°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	83.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	41%	82.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗