KMSP / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

79%

49%

43%

41%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.70u · ICON −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	43.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	43.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	43.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T14:51:46+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	43.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T14:51:49+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	43.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	43.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	43.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	39.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	39.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	39.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	58.3%	24.6%	39.9%	43.0%	21.7%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	66.2%	24.6%	39.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	66.2%	24.6%	39.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	66.2%	24.6%	39.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	66.2%	24.6%	39.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	66.2%	24.6%	35.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	66.2%	24.6%	35.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	66.2%	24.6%	35.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	70.7%	24.6%	35.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	70.7%	24.6%	35.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	70.7%	23.8%	35.9%	55.3%	18.7%
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	70.7%	23.8%	35.9%	54.7%	18.7%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	70.7%	23.8%	35.9%	54.7%	18.7%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	70.7%	23.8%	45.9%	54.7%	18.7%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	70.7%	23.8%	45.9%	54.7%	18.7%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	70.7%	23.8%	45.9%	54.7%	18.7%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00	59.7%	23.8%	45.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00	59.7%	23.8%	45.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00	59.7%	23.8%	45.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00	59.7%	23.8%	45.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	45.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	48.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	48.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00	59.7%	25.5%	48.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00	63.9%	25.5%	48.9%	33.8%	28.4%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00	63.9%	25.6%	48.9%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	48.9%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	48.9%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	48.9%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	48.9%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	48.9%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	45.6%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	45.6%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	45.6%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	63.9%	26.3%	45.6%	33.8%	28.5%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	45.6%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	45.6%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	45.6%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	45.6%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	45.6%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	71.9%	26.3%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	79.5%	26.3%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	79.5%	26.3%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	79.5%	26.7%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	79.5%	26.7%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	79.5%	26.7%	59.7%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	79.5%	26.7%	60.8%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	79.5%	26.7%	60.8%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	79.5%	26.7%	60.8%	55.2%	19.0%
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.8%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.8%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.8%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.8%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.8%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.2%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.2%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	60.2%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	77.9%	26.7%	60.2%	57.6%	14.1%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	78.0%	26.7%	60.2%	57.6%	14.0%
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	78.0%	24.2%	60.2%	57.6%	14.0%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	78.0%	24.2%	60.2%	57.6%	14.0%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	78.0%	24.2%	60.2%	57.6%	31.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	78.0%	24.2%	46.6%	57.6%	31.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	78.0%	24.2%	46.6%	57.6%	31.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	78.0%	24.2%	46.6%	57.6%	31.5%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	46.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	46.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	46.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	46.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	46.6%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	47.7%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	47.7%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	47.7%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	81.9%	24.2%	47.7%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	81.9%	29.1%	47.7%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00	81.9%	29.1%	47.7%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00	81.9%	29.1%	47.7%	51.0%	31.5%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	81.9%	29.1%	47.7%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	81.9%	29.1%	52.3%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	81.9%	29.1%	52.3%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	81.9%	29.1%	52.3%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	88.5%	29.1%	52.3%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	88.5%	29.1%	52.3%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	88.5%	29.1%	52.3%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	88.5%	29.1%	52.3%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	88.5%	29.1%	52.3%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	91.0%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	90.7%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00	90.7%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	90.7%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	40.0%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	90.7%	54.0%	54.7%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00	90.7%	54.0%	48.8%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	90.7%	54.0%	48.8%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	90.7%	54.0%	48.8%	88.3%	41.1%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	48.8%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	48.8%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	48.8%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	48.8%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	48.8%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	43.0%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	43.0%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00	88.5%	54.0%	43.0%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	91.5%	48.7%	43.0%	78.6%	41.1%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00	91.5%	48.7%	43.0%	78.6%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	89.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	86.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	83.9°F	2.0°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	83.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
ICON	41%	82.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 84°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗