KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

55%

40%

36%

17%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.60u · ICON −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	93.1%	—	—	65.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	97.2%	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	99.5%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	92.5%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	99.0%	26.3%	—	78.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	37.8%	43.4%	—	58.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	5.4%	93.7%	52.3%	—	58.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	92.3%	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	19.5%	92.8%	48.4%	—	57.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	93.9%	67.8%	61.5%	—	52.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.1%	61.0%	—	—	47.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	50.9%	66.2%	59.6%	—	52.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	27.1%	79.8%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	27.4%	87.1%	67.0%	—	39.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	38.8%	87.8%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	52.9%	91.0%	41.3%	—	44.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	40.1%	85.4%	—	—	36.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	37.8%	84.9%	59.2%	—	32.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	33.5%	89.4%	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	28.2%	86.3%	47.8%	16.9%	28.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	30.5%	95.0%	22.3%	—	26.7%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	34.1%	84.7%	54.6%	16.0%	34.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	33.6%	76.6%	46.4%	—	32.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	43.8%	75.4%	51.2%	88.2%	41.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	26.9%	60.2%	44.9%	—	28.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	26.2%	63.2%	29.5%	87.4%	19.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	40.3%	63.7%	24.2%	—	19.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	33.1%	65.5%	41.4%	80.9%	35.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	27.2%	77.6%	29.8%	—	31.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	29.0%	82.9%	20.3%	10.2%	9.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	32.4%	66.1%	30.9%	—	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	75.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	73.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	73.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗