KMSP / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

55%

40%

36%

17%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.60u · ICON −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	48.4%	92.4%	34.1%	60.1%	95.2%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	48.4%	92.4%	34.1%	60.1%	95.2%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	48.4%	92.4%	37.7%	60.1%	95.2%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	48.4%	92.4%	37.7%	60.1%	95.2%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	48.4%	92.4%	37.7%	60.1%	95.2%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00	51.7%	92.4%	37.7%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00	51.7%	92.4%	37.7%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00	51.7%	92.4%	37.7%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00	51.7%	92.4%	37.7%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00	51.7%	95.7%	37.7%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00	51.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	51.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00	51.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	47.9%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	41.8%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	41.8%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	41.8%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	56.7%	95.7%	41.8%	52.3%	61.1%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	41.8%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	41.8%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	41.8%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	41.8%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	41.8%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	59.1%	95.7%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	60.0%	95.7%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	60.0%	95.7%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	60.0%	95.9%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	60.0%	95.9%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	60.0%	95.9%	53.1%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	60.0%	95.9%	46.9%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	60.0%	95.9%	46.9%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	60.0%	95.9%	46.9%	39.9%	38.1%
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	46.9%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	46.9%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	46.9%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	46.9%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	46.9%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	58.7%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	58.7%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	63.9%	95.9%	58.7%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	61.4%	95.9%	58.7%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	61.4%	95.9%	58.7%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	61.4%	91.5%	58.7%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	61.4%	91.5%	58.7%	56.1%	56.2%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	61.4%	91.5%	58.7%	56.1%	40.8%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	61.4%	91.5%	46.7%	56.1%	40.8%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	61.4%	91.5%	46.7%	56.1%	40.8%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	61.4%	91.5%	46.7%	56.1%	40.8%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	46.7%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	46.7%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	46.7%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	46.7%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	46.7%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	45.6%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	45.6%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	57.1%	91.5%	45.6%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	52.7%	91.5%	45.6%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	52.7%	98.7%	45.6%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00	52.7%	98.7%	45.6%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00	52.7%	98.7%	45.6%	38.8%	40.8%
2026-09-10T04:40:25+00:00	52.7%	98.7%	45.6%	38.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	52.7%	98.7%	41.3%	38.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	52.7%	98.7%	41.3%	38.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	52.7%	98.7%	41.3%	38.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	51.9%	98.7%	41.3%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	51.9%	98.7%	41.3%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	51.9%	98.7%	41.3%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	51.9%	98.7%	41.3%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	51.9%	98.7%	41.3%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	51.9%	99.9%	40.9%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	51.9%	99.9%	40.9%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	51.9%	99.9%	40.9%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	40.9%	36.8%	22.2%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	41.0%	36.9%	22.2%
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	41.0%	36.9%	22.2%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	41.0%	36.9%	22.2%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	41.0%	36.9%	28.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	37.7%	36.9%	28.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	37.7%	36.9%	28.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	53.7%	99.9%	37.7%	36.9%	28.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	37.7%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	37.7%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	37.7%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	37.7%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	37.7%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00	59.2%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.5%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	44.3%	43.3%	28.7%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	46.6%	43.3%	28.7%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	46.6%	43.3%	28.7%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	60.1%	99.9%	46.6%	43.3%	28.7%
2026-09-11T07:44:21+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	46.6%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	46.6%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	46.6%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T09:59:46+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	46.6%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	46.6%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	41.8%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T12:15:03+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	41.8%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T13:00:14+00:00	59.5%	99.9%	41.8%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	41.8%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	56.7%	100.0%	41.8%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T15:15:59+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	41.8%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T16:01:09+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	41.8%	52.1%	28.7%
2026-09-11T16:46:14+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	41.8%	52.1%	16.9%
2026-09-11T17:31:20+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	52.1%	16.9%
2026-09-11T18:16:28+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	52.1%	16.9%
2026-09-11T19:01:33+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	52.1%	16.9%
2026-09-11T19:46:38+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-11T20:31:44+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-11T21:16:51+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-11T22:01:58+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-11T22:47:03+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	37.2%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-11T23:32:08+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	36.1%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-12T00:17:15+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	36.1%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-12T01:02:22+00:00	56.7%	99.9%	36.1%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-12T01:47:28+00:00	54.8%	99.9%	36.1%	39.6%	16.9%
2026-09-12T02:32:35+00:00	54.8%	99.9%	36.1%	39.6%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	75.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	73.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	73.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗