KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

23%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.9¢Risks 20.90u

ICONNO 79.1¢Risks 79.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.10u · ICON −79.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	28.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	22.8%	—	—	19.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	0.3%	0.1%	—	29.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.2%	4.1%	—	18.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	1.1%	13.8%	80.5%	—	50.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	17.4%	0.6%	83.2%	—	50.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	56.5%	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	23.2%	1.5%	50.0%	—	39.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.7%	97.2%	—	—	25.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.3%	2.7%	43.0%	—	16.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	15.5%	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.5%	1.2%	17.8%	10.2%	11.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.3%	1.7%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.8%	3.4%	8.2%	—	4.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	4.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	2.8%	—	1.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	3.3%	—	3.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	0.4%	1.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	19.1%	3.0%	0.1%	1.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	3.2%	—	1.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	4.6%	0.1%	1.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	1.5%	—	0.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.7%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	73.1°F	6.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	38%	71.7°F	9.0°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	70.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	67.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	63.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗