KMSP / Mon Sep 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

23%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.9¢Risks 20.90u

ICONNO 79.1¢Risks 79.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.10u · ICON −79.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	12.4%	60.1%	19.8%	59.4%	32.5%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	12.4%	60.1%	19.8%	59.4%	32.5%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	12.4%	60.1%	19.8%	59.4%	40.3%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	12.4%	60.1%	9.6%	59.4%	40.3%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	12.4%	60.1%	9.6%	59.4%	40.3%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	12.4%	60.1%	9.6%	59.4%	40.3%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	9.6%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	9.6%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	9.6%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	9.6%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	9.6%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	10.4%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	10.4%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	13.7%	60.1%	10.4%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	19.0%	60.1%	10.4%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	19.0%	56.3%	10.4%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00	19.0%	56.3%	10.4%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00	19.0%	56.3%	10.4%	18.7%	40.3%
2026-09-10T04:40:25+00:00	19.0%	56.3%	10.4%	18.7%	0.8%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	19.0%	56.3%	10.4%	18.7%	0.8%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	19.0%	56.3%	10.4%	18.7%	0.8%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	19.0%	56.3%	10.4%	18.7%	0.8%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	12.3%	56.3%	10.4%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	12.3%	56.3%	10.4%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	12.3%	56.3%	10.4%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	12.3%	56.3%	10.4%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	12.3%	56.3%	10.4%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	12.3%	40.9%	6.7%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	12.3%	40.9%	6.7%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	12.3%	40.9%	6.7%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	6.2%	40.9%	6.7%	23.4%	0.8%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	6.2%	40.9%	7.1%	23.3%	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	73.1°F	6.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	38%	71.7°F	9.0°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	70.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	67.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	63.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260914-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Sep 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗